EU leaders have taken varying positions on Cameron’s renegotiation demands. The Social Democrat-Christian Democrat Coalition Government in Austria has been protesting the proposals in protest at Britain’s reluctance to share migrants. The Social Democrat Swedish Government is supporting Britain. The Centre-Left coalition in Czech Republic has strongly protested the welfare reforms. The Christian Democrat led coalition in Germany has not ruled out treaty change but Merkel’s position is obfuscated. The Socialist Government in France is a strong opponent of the British reforms. The Conservative Government in Hungary has also hit out at the reforms. The Populist Right Government of Poland is also against the proposals. But the Centre Right Government in Netherlands is supporting Cameron.

Those favoring Brexit argue that withdrawal would reverse immigration, free Britain from an economic burden and save billions of taxpayer’s money. Britain being outside the EU would be free to rescind EU laws and regulations. Some estimates put the benefits at several per cent of GDP. The UK’s net contribution to the EU is about £9bn a year which is a substantial sum. Euroseptics argue that UK is suffocated by employment legislation. Britain is also culturally, linguistically and legally aligned with the Commonwealth countries and so has options of trade outside EU too. Those thinking otherwise argue that such withdrawal would lead to deep economic uncertainty leading to millions of jobs losses. Also Britain would then face the common external tariff. British companies would find it difficult to comply with EU regulations in order to gain access to the Single Market. Business investment in Britain might drop, with falls in foreign direct investment and withdrawals by overseas firms. Whether a British exit from the EU would diminish or enhance the country’s standing and influence is an open question.

Also United States has presently ruled out a separate trade deal with UK if it leaves the European Union. Whether UK would be successful in negotiating favourable trade deals with other countries like China, India also needs to be seen. But a tiny non EU member like Switzerland has managed to sign a favourable trade agreement with Japan, a country with which the EU could not seal a deal till date. So, Euroseptics argue that mere exit from EU may not pose any terrible loss to the country. Germany’s close relationship with Poland also works unfavorably as Poland staunchly objects to the Britain’s proposals as the proposals are generally seen as discriminating against East European countries.

Whether the “Norwegian option” can be emulated is also a hotly debated question. Norway has negotiated a semi-detached relationship with the EU through its membership of the European Economic Area. European Economic Area membership gives Norway full access to the EU’s internal market, allowing it to trade goods with EU states without customs fees. Norway is obliged to implement all the EU’s laws relating to the internal market. Though Norway has representatives in EU institutions, they have no decision-making power in how EU rules are drafted. But still Norway has higher per capita immigration than Britain, also Britain has more control over its borders than Norway, which is part of the Schengen border-free area. Thus there are disadvantages of the “Norwegian option”, as Norway had to accept EU regulations, yet had no vote or influence in Brussels, makes a contribution to the EU budget and yet has no effective control over its borders.

Though there is general consensus among the EU members that the UK’s In-Out referendum will not force open Europe’s treaties, yet it is viewed as a “pandora’s box”. A new European treaty would require ratification in 28 national parliaments and potentially trigger referenda in many other member states.

On Cameron’s demand of a “multi currency union”, European Central Bank fears that it could lead to a breakaway regulatory regime for non-eurozone countries as other countries may try to avoid its obligation to join the euro.

After the two-day Brussels summit of the EU leaders on 17-18 December, 2015, Cameron has finally cleared the way for a UK referendum on EU membership next summer. His renegotiation at another summit in February next year, may be the last opportunity before holding the referendum. A “Brexit” is now more likely than ever due to the tough stand taken by Cameron and the entrenched position of many EU leaders. With the recent accusations against the Tories of a “migration cover-up”, the Euro Wars have just begun!